BUSINESSES in Worcestershire are having pre-election wobbles, it seems.
Confidence about the future for their firms has fallen since the end of last year, according to the Chamber of Commerce’s quarterly economic survey.
It’s not doom and gloom, by any means, with 55 per cent of manufacturing firms expecting to see turnover increase in the next 12 months and 50 per cent of service businesses.
But those figures for January to March 2015 are seven and 10 points down respectively on the level of confidence in the last survey covering the last three months of 2014.
The most likely explanation is that the results reflect unease about the uncertainty created by a general election, particularly one which could then lead to weeks of coalition bargaining.
However, there is also evidence that growth has slowed down anyway.
Both manufacturing and service industries are reporting falls in sales levels from the end of last year. The figures are not in negative numbers, but they do indicate that the rate of growth is slowing down.
That is also feeding through to job prospects, where again firms are reining back their expectations of how many people they will be recruiting over the next year.
Capacity and cashflow have also fallen back.
One piece of good news is that West Midlands firms have been doing exceptionally well in the export market. They have seen 64 per cent growth in the last four years, with figures of 144 per cent in the Asian markets and more than 100 per cent in the Middle East.
Analysts say the figures need to be seen in context. A majority of firms remain confident and are predicting growth, it’s just fewer than a few months ago. This may just be a blip, but another quarterly survey telling a similar story would be cause for some re-evaluation.
l The results were given to a business breakfast hosted by the Herefordshire and Worcestershire Chamber of Commerce held at Worcestershire County Cricket Club’s New Road ground.
The chamber’s survey is the biggest of its type nationally and is important to economic planners because of its focus on trying to predict what will happen. It is available at economicsurvey.org.uk