The trouble with Europe is that it just keeps going on and on. Countries vote against treaties, like Ireland last week, but it rarely seems to make any difference in the stuffy corridors of Brussels. Which, of course, is one important reason that the Irish voted against the Lisbon Treaty.
Another was the Bertie' factor - the recent resignation of the pro-Lisbon Taoiseach after a financial scandal. The final nail in the coffin was the housing crash, which has caused panic in a country where people had come to see ever-rising property prices as a kind of natural right. Voting down Lisbon is hardly going to do anything about that, but it was a way of giving the politicians a kicking nevertheless.
This is the trouble with referenda: people don't always vote on the issue before them. As the financial crisis deepens, and people see their standard of living fall, they look for an opportunity to register their discontent. Which doesn't mean the vote is invalid, or that it can easily be dismissed. The Irish NO has been a blow to the ambitions of Brussels to create a more coherent and, yes, centralised EU. Not a superstate, but a union able to speak with a common voice. Clearly there is no common voice.
It probably wasn't an anti-European vote as such; Ireland has done so well out of the EU that no serious politician there proposes actual withdrawal, but Europe arouses deep suspicion. There was a fear that under the new treaty, which entrenches majority voting on the Council of Ministers, Ireland might lose some of its opt-outs such as its right to cut corporation taxes to improve competitiveness, or its military neutrality; some No voters apparently believe that the EU wants to conscript young Irish into a European defence force. These were not realistic fears, but there is no doubt that people feel that Brussels is too remote.
But is there any way that the EU can be sufficiently attuned to the national attitudes of 27 countries? This is the challenge to those, such as the Conservatives, who rejoice at Irish rejectionism. Kick the bureaucrats where it hurts, they say; show that the people won't be taken for granted. Well, and good, but what is the alternative now? We are entering a very different economic and political climate to that in which the EU was born and evolved into the dynamic economic zone we see now.
The 60 year post-war boom is ending. Look how inflation is returning with a vengeance. See how Spain is being crushed by the collapse of its construction boom. The party is over, and countries such as Germany, which have not indulged in irresponsible indebtedness, will be expected to bail out countries such as, well Britain, which have.
The Mediterranean countries are looking to a relaxation of the Maastricht rules on public spending to head off a recession. The eastern countries suspect that the west just wants their cheap labour. There is a real chance Europe could unravel if the instability continues. Our cosy assumption that, whatever happens, the EU will just go on may be about to suffer a reality check.
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